Skip to content

Andreas Bang Leed

Head of Data Science, Oxford Global Projects  ·  PhD Fellow in Economics, Aarhus University

I measure what others leave to guesswork, from the cost and risk of large infrastructure projects to the price of nature. I lead the data science team at Oxford Global Projects, and my doctoral research in economics puts defensible numbers on questions that appraisals usually leave out.

Experience

2019–

Head of Data Science

Oxford Global Projects

May 2019 – Present

Lead a multidisciplinary team building evidence-based forecasting tools, analytics and AI systems for major projects worldwide, drawing on the world's largest database of project performance across thousands of projects and dozens of countries.

2025–

PhD Fellow in Economics

Aarhus University

Sep 2025 – May 2028 (expected)

Research in econometrics and the economics of large-scale infrastructure and environmental policy. One strand examines how estimation noise and project selection produce systematic cost overruns. Another estimates how the ecological quality of nearby nature is reflected in Danish house prices.

2021–

External Examiner

Political Science & Social Data Science

Sep 2021 – Present

2018–19

Business Analyst & Consultant

Implement Consulting Group

Feb 2018 – Apr 2019

Strategy and analytics consulting for public and private sector clients in Denmark.

2017–18

Research Assistant

University of Oxford

Saïd Business School  ·  Jan 2017 – Feb 2018

Supported research on megaproject management and performance.

2014–16

Research Assistant

Aarhus University

Dec 2014 – Dec 2016

Education

exp. 2028

PhD in Economics

Aarhus University

Sep 2025 – May 2028 (expected)

2019

MSc in Political Science

Aarhus University
2016

BSc in Political Science

Aarhus University

Teaching

current

Cost-Benefit Analysis in the Public Sector

Aarhus University

Master's course, 10 ECTS

Design and teach a master's-level course on cost-benefit analysis for public-sector decisions.

Selected impact

UK transport appraisal. Authored analysis for the UK Department for Transport that informed appraisal guidance shaping how billions of pounds of public investment are assessed.

Hong Kong early warning. Helped build the Project Supervision System, an AI early-warning system that monitors Hong Kong's public-works portfolio and flags projects drifting toward cost overrun or delay early enough to act.

Global advisory. Advised governments, multilateral organisations and consultancies across six continents, on projects from nuclear energy and transport to renewable power, artificial intelligence and biodiversity.

Publications

in prog.
Leed, A. B. The Hedonic Price of Ecological Quality: Separating Biodiversity from Greenness in Danish Housing Markets. Working paper, Aarhus University.
2026
Leed, A. B. Noise, Selection, and the Illusion of Bias: How Unbiased Estimates Can Produce Systematic Cost Overruns. SSRN Working Paper No. 6429358.
2026
Leed, A. B. How to Measure Your Projects More Effectively. APM Project Journal, Spring 2026 (practitioner article).
2025
Hubbard, D. W., Budzier, A. & Leed, A. B. How to Measure Anything in Project Management. Wiley.
2025
Greig, C., Techau, M., Leed, A. & Budzier, A. Maintaining Capital Discipline in the Rush to Net-Zero Energy Systems. iScience, 28(4): 112241.
2022
Flyvbjerg, B., Budzier, A., Agard, K. & Leed, A. AI in Action: How the Hong Kong Development Bureau Built the Project Supervision System. Hong Kong Development Bureau (PSGO).
2021
Budzier, A. & Leed, A. Updating the Evidence Behind the Optimism Bias Uplifts for Transport Appraisals. UK Department for Transport.
2018
Budzier, A., Flyvbjerg, B., Garavaglia, A. & Leed, A. Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage. SSRN Working Paper No. 3303410.

Selected talks

2026

Folkemødet

Allinge, Denmark

“Megaprojekter i Danmark – hvor gode er vi egentlig?” (megaprojects in Denmark: how good are we really?). Panel debate with directors from By & Havn, Metroselskabet and Region Sjælland at Denmark's annual democracy festival.

2026

Ledelseskonferencen

Odense, Denmark

“Evidensbaseret ledelse: Sådan måler du det, der betyder noget” (evidence-based management: how to measure what matters). Public-sector leadership conference.

2025

Project Controls Expo

London, United Kingdom

“How to Measure Anything in Project Management”.

2024

Machine Learning Week Europe

Munich, Germany

“Guarding Public Works Projects with an Early Warning System for the Hong Kong Development Bureau”.

Full list on the speaking page.

Expertise

  • Econometrics & Statistics
  • Reference Class Forecasting
  • Machine Learning & AI
  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Risk Quantification
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Cost & Schedule Forecasting
  • Environmental & Climate Economics
  • Stakeholder Engagement
  • Decision Support
  • Python
  • R

A fuller account of roles, clients and research sits on the About page. Publications with links are on the Publications page. Last updated August 2026.