Head of Data Science at Oxford Global Projects, co-author of How to Measure Anything in Project Management, and PhD Fellow in Economics at Aarhus University.
Twenty-one interactive tools on forecasting, calibration, cost risk and the value of nature. Guess a project's final cost and see how similar ones turned out, test whether your confidence is well calibrated, or run a Monte Carlo simulation.
Final cost versus the estimate: most projects land near the plan, a few run far over.
Explore the LabBiodiversity usually enters cost-benefit analysis at zero, because no one has priced it. My PhD research at Aarhus University estimates what nearby nature is worth, from around 850,000 Danish home sales matched to the national Biodiversitetskort.
Ecological quality across Denmark, parish by parish.
Explore the researchA project is approved with a cost estimate. What will it cost? Set your guess, then reveal how similar projects turned out.
A roadway project is approved with a cost estimate of 100. What will it cost? Set your guess, then reveal how similar projects turned out.
your guesswhere projects landed (P10 to P90)middle half (P25 to P75)median
Figures: historical cost-overrun reference classes from How to Measure Anything in Project Management (Hubbard, Budzier & Leed, 2025). Explore all reference classes in the Lab.
A practical guide that replaces guesswork with rigorous measurement. Drawing on the world's largest project performance database, it offers practical tools to forecast outcomes, reduce risk and improve decisions.
Andreas has a natural talent for teaching and a gift for explaining complex concepts in a way that is accessible and engaging. His lectures are always well-researched, insightful and thought-provoking.Head of Leadership & Competence DevelopmentNCC
As a trusted advisor, Andreas simplifies advanced statistical analysis for diverse stakeholders, from risk experts to senior leadership, enabling informed and rational decisions on Britain's biggest infrastructure projects.UK Head of Risk Management & Technical DirectorWSP
Andreas is an outstanding communicator with deep intellectual curiosity. He transforms research into practice, builds high-performing teams and delivers transformative impact, including evidence that shaped UK legislation on low-carbon energy.Fellow, Said Business SchoolUniversity of Oxford
Andreas effectively uses data to develop and communicate insights. His technical skills, global experience and ability to synthesise complex information make his advice compelling, credible and thoughtful.Director of EconomicsNew Zealand Infrastructure Commission
Andreas's work on optimism bias and reference class forecasting has been highly influential. He moves effortlessly from explaining complex analysis in simple terms to performing cutting-edge statistical work, a rare combination of skills.Head of Economic Research & EngagementUK Department for Transport
In developing Hong Kong's AI-based Project Surveillance System, Andreas integrated vast data volumes into precise, actionable insights. Today the system monitors over 200 capital projects, optimising resources and exemplifying his analytical and creative vision.Principal Assistant SecretaryHong Kong Development Bureau
Interested in collaborating, booking a talk or learning more? I'd love to hear from you.